Gentleman Agitator

THE ATMOSPHERIC GREMLINS STRIKE AGAIN: Clear Air Turbulence Strikes Air Canada A319

    As reported by the Toronto Globe and Mail,on January 11, 2008, an Air Canada, Airbus A319 from Victoria, British Columbia to Toronto, Ontario had to make an unscheduled stop in Calgary, Alberta, the previous day, due to a few moments where it encountered a pocket of undetectable turbulence in flight. Ten people were taken to the hospital, but none with life threatening injuries. Here is a Canadian video report. This incident is what is known as "Clear Air Turbulence".
    NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center, at Edwards Air Force Base in California has been one of the leading research institutions looking into these phenomena along with NASA's Langley Research Center in Virginia. They describe it this way:
“Atmospheric turbulence is the leading cause of in-flight injuries experienced by the flying public, and can result in death in extreme situations.
    Turbulence is often associated with visible storm systems. In these situations, the turbulent conditions can be observed by radar and the aircraft can avoid the dangerous region. Not so with clear-air turbulence, a condition occurring at cruise altitudes that has few if any visible warning signs for even the most conscientious pilots.
    Clear air turbulence is often found on the outskirts of thunderstorms, up to 50 miles away from the actual storm activity. It also occurs near the boundaries of high altitude air currents called jet streams and in the vicinity of mountain ranges and surface weather fronts. There are currently no effective systems to warn flight crews that they are approaching clear air turbulence. One of the only ways that commercial or other aircraft can avoid encounters is to heed recent pilot reports of turbulence and if possible, avoid the hazardous region of the atmosphere.
    Additional work in the turbulence research program is under way to improve understanding of the clear air turbulence phenomena and thereby improve the quality of turbulence forecasting.”
    For almost ten years, NASA has been working to devise a system by which aircraft can detect these atmospheric gremlins before they send passengers tumbling around the cabin like the recent Air Canada incident. Working with various test beds that have included a 1960’s era Lockheed Electra prop-jet, a DC-8 jetliner and a Boeing 757 jetliner, NASA researchers and others from the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado have looked at a couple of different methods involving hardware, software and laser pulses to detect the rough air pockets. (Animation of how the laser system works)
    Size of the hardware and cost of the system are still factors that might hinder airlines from adopting it. It would not be the first time the airlines passed on a NASA developed device that could increase air safety. NASA Dryden helped to devise a system that could fly a plane by engine thrust only in the mid-1990s using an MD-11 aircraft as a test bed. This would allow a plane that loses use of the wings, rudder or flaps, such as the famous United Flight 232 in 1989, the ability to land safely. While not great in size the airlines claimed the cost of installation was too great for their large fleets and the likelihood of another such incident was minimal. What is the cost of safety though? Air travel is incredibly safe, but why not make it safer?
    Until the airlines decide whether to buy into being able to avoid the turbulence gremlins, I suggest you keep your seat belt fasten. Bashing your head into the light and air vent panel above you could lead to serious injury. Look for hand holds below the overhead bins to hang onto, if you have to walk about the cabin. If you are walking about the cabin, more than likely, you are on the way to the lavatory. There is usually one handle in the lavatory near the door. However, in there, a big bump could cause a nasty case of blue butt, even if you hang on. If you have ever looked into one of those toilet bowls, you will know what I mean.

For more information on NASA’s research in the area of Clear Air Turbulence, go to:

NASA (ACLAIM) PROJECT RESEARCH

TIMELY WARNINGS OF TURBULENCE AHEAD

A Status Report on Turbulence Warning Technology

Just When You Thought It Was Safe to Put the “Keep Delta, My Delta” Buttons Away

There is a new threat to Delta Air Lines, "Pardus Capital Management, LLC. I am sure if you are an airline industry watcher like I am, a Delta Air Lines supporter like I am or that you are an air traveler, that you have heard that pot stirring coming from a letter from Pardus to Delta executives. Pardus declaring how “imperative” it is that Delta merge with another carrier and that United would be the “most attractive and practical combination.” Uh, that would be the most attractive and practical? That shows how much Pardus know about the airline industry. Perhaps they just mean attractive and practical for them.
    It was only last year that Delta was fighting off a marriage proposal of an unwanted suitor in US Airways. That rumpled suit with wilting flowers showed up at the door trying to create a low cost Frankenairline of a carrier that would have kept the name Delta. I wrote two articles on that subject last year, DELTAFLOT: BLUEPRINT FOR A FRANKENAIRLINE: Part 1 and Part 2.
    Now, we have an outside matchmaker trying to scare Delta to merge with United. Who exactly is Pardus to tell Delta and United what to do? Pardus has a puny 2.6 and 4.8 percent of stake in each company. Who is Pardus anyway?
    Pardus is a hedge fund group. A hedge fund is defined by a CNN online article on understanding financial terms as: A private investment fund that uses high risk techniques such as short selling and derivatives to achieve a higher return. Maligned in some quarters because of the perception that some hedge funds have so much leverage their activities can be detrimental to the global financial system.
    In doing a little research about Pardus, read of them being or having been connected to the Lear Corporation. Lear is one of the world's largest suppliers of automotive interior systems and components. More importantly, I saw that the majority stakeholder in the Lear Corporation is none other than a name that strikes revulsion and fear in the hearts of many former and present airline employees. It is none other than that notorious destroyer of airlines in the 1980s, Carl Icahn. If Pardus and Icahn have any connections, look out Delta and United. I have no evidence of this, I just found it interesting that they were both hedge fund movers with investments in a sector with Lear and another auto parts company Visteon. 
    Icahn is also mentioned in a February 2006 article at Business Week.com. entitled: “Attack Of The Hungry Hedge Funds.” I used to think that hedge funds were helping to prop up ailing American companies, but now… The article reads, “To hike stock prices, they're banding together to force changes on companies. Activist hedge funds had a banner day on Feb. 7. Before the stock market opened, General Motors Corp. (GM ) finally succumbed to months of pressure from billionaire Kirk Kerkorian and his Tracinda Corp. investment fund by slashing its dividend, cutting executive pay, and naming a Kerkorian adviser to the board. In the afternoon, an adviser to billionaire hedge fund manager Carl Icahn issued a 343-page paper detailing how to break up Time Warner Inc. (TWX ) and release about $40 billion in shareholder value.  Boosting share prices rather than taking over underperforming companies is the name of the game, and any strategy to achieve that seems fair play…
…In fact, the new strategies mean that such corporate battles are now year-round affairs. At any moment, an activist fund can take a position in a target company and quickly start agitating for change. The first move is often a salty open letter to management. When Icahn, who manages various Icahn Partners funds, wrote to Time Warner shareholders on Oct. 11, he let fly. "Unless this legacy of poor decision-making is fully recognized and the board is held accountable, the dismal record of mistakes and inaction will continue to the detriment of shareholders," he wrote. It was the official opening salvo in the war for the future of the company…” Gee, where have I heard of this scenario in the last couple of days?
    So, it is back to the 1980s eh? Cue Gordon Gecko, “Greed is good.” Some speculation is that moves like this are in fear of a Democrat in the White House and a new administration not as amenable to big mergers. So, get while the gettin’ is good, is that it?  You just scare investors, management, employees and travelers of airlines into consolidation and pick up a quick buck.  Oh, that cry of consolidation. One symptom of a lot of the run away capitalism we have in this world is by those that unless companies merge in an industry that it will all collapse. That and the absurd notion that some have that consolidation of the airline industry would bring more competition. No, it would only bring monopolies. That is not a free market economy.
    For now we will just have to believe the statements of Delta and United reported in the New York Times:    
    “We appreciate receiving Pardus’s views on the best course for Delta’s future,” Mr. Anderson (Delta’s CEO Richard H. Anderson) said in the statement. “We have been consistent in our public statements that Delta believes that the right consolidation transaction could generate significant value for our shareholders and employees.”
    United’s spokeswoman, Jean Medina, said: "We do not respond to wholly inaccurate statements made by people who claim to have knowledge when they clearly do not."
    Just in case, as a loyal customer of Delta and supporter of the company and its employees I will keep my “Keep Delta, My Delta” button at the ready. I will be ready to brandish it again and agitate for a free and independent Delta Air Lines.    

Getting the Jet Blues

Have you ever gone to the airport, gazed at a giant electronic sign of departures and arrivals and wondered how an airline keeps track of all that? Most passengers probably do not. You just scan for your flight number and destination and then make a beeline for the correct gate. What is behind those shuffling flight numbers and city names is a constant juggling act being preformed day in and day out by airline operations teams around the world. Each airline’s operations team has to move planes, crews and passengers around their cities. Factors like weather and mechanical failure can at anytime throw off the smooth flow of getting planes in the air and back on the ground. The airline industry’s number one rule is that planes only make money while in the air.

However, if the operations team cannot get passengers from one point to another efficiently as possible, cannot get the right aircraft in place to get those passengers, or cannot get the crew to the plane to fly those passengers, this can cause a cascade effect across an airline’s system, may lead to system failure. System failure leads to excessive inconvenience passengers and a lot of lost revenue for the company. Keeping these balls in the air is not easy.

Last week the airline, JetBlue could not keep all the balls in the air. They are still paying for it this week and the financial impact may hurt them for some time to come.

A winter storm that had marched across the United States, by Wednesday was on its way to impact the highly traveled American northeast. Many air carrier’s operations teams responded to the advancing weather by delaying or canceling flights outright. Weather forecasts are pretty accurate these days. Airlines are pretty accurate at knowing when to cancel and when not to because of weather. You can hedge your bet about the weather and delays, but you have a lot to lose. By canceling and adjusting schedules a little ahead of the weather disruption, airlines can usually mitigate the inconvenience for passengers to hours or a couple of days at most. This also helps the airline’s bottom line as planes can get back in the air in a more orderly manner when the weather is considered acceptable to fly again. Someone at JetBlue put all his or her chips on the weather not being that bad, staying more rainy than icy. According to airline analyst, Daryl Jenkins, who spoke on National Public Radio this morning, JetBlue has a policy of never canceling flights. So, the pressure was on to hedge the weather bet just to keep planes in the air. Only today, do they have their system running back at 100 percent! They have a lot of peeode passengers and they are bleeding money.

New York Times reporter Jeff Bailey writes yesterday that JetBlue founder and CEO David Neeleman is “humiliated and mortified,” by what has happened. Neeleman should be humiliated. JetBlue had a lot going for it since taking to the skies in 1999. As low cost carriers go, they seem to have been able to offer an attractive service package to go with the low fares. They seemed like a very hip and professional 21st century airline.

I am not an airline employee. I am an average airline traveler. However, I am an airline enthusiast. I have studied this industry since I was a teenager, some <cough> thirty years ago. I feel I know a professional airline when I see it. After reading the New York Times article and other reports, I question if JetBlue lacks professional leadership acumen. I can say also that they were bit by what bites many start up airlines and even established carriers in the last thirty years and that is growing too fast.

The NYT article quotes Neeleman, “...“We had so many people in the company who wanted to help who weren’t trained to help,” he said. “We had an emergency control center full of people who didn’t know what to do. I had flight attendants sitting in hotel rooms for three days who couldn’t get a hold of us. I had pilots e-mailing me saying, ‘I’m available, what do I do?’ ” To that it is hard not to be sarcastic and say, “Your kidding right?”

JetBlue’s emergency control room had people trained to do what then? Even if trained to handle a crash scenario or another terrorist attack, these people should be flexible enough to handle a major weather event. JetBlue crews could not get through to the company? They may look hip, but in this information age, you are telling me you cannot communicate effectively company wide? Wow. The article reports that Neeleman said that “...JetBlue lacked the trained staff to find them and tell them where to go. Prior to last week, JetBlue had never had so many people out of position...” Ahh, yes. That shows that JetBlue has gotten too big for its britches. They are not the first airline to do that, with various factors crimping on the success of the company. JetBlue seems to be an example of letting a company gets larger and larger in the amount it produces without having the infrastructure to keep up with it. I wonder if this shows an inherent flaw in the small, low cost carrier model. You fly on the margins with not enough aircraft as back ups and not enough staff to weather, well, weather, and other problems that may arise on a day-to-day basis. That is how you keep the costs low and the profits high. JetBlue also lacks inter-airline agreements with competitors to help them out by taking passengers as needed who are delayed for whatever reason. Why? I think for one think major carriers resent the low cost carriers and feel no need to help them out. I do not blame them actually.

I feel the low cost model, made popular by Southwest, has done a lot of financial damage to an industry that is often hard pressed to make profits. Maybe JetBlue will have to do what small, low cost airline, Spirit is thinking of doing. Spirit is considering selling just about everything that they can on-board, food, water, blankets, liquor and who knows what else. But hey, they have eight-dollar fares! What a country! Spirit is getting ridiculous. That really is bait and switch. Other low-cost and long time legacy carriers are not immune to these gambits to attract passengers with a low fare and then make them pay for service on-board either. The low fare obsession has forced them to these measures. To this airline enthusiast’s opinion, the low cost model has led to a race to the bottom in the industry. A low bottom of fares, but also a low bottom of service, comfort and convience for passengers, and the ability of carriers to make any money at all in the end.

I would like to also add something more about JetBlue. If airline analyst Daryl Jenkins is correct and JetBlue has a policy of never canceling or almost never canceling flights for whatever reason, you have to question their professionalism in regards to safety. I wonder what the true limits are of keeping JetBlue planes in the air. Oh, and by the way JetBlue, get a meteorologist and listen to him or her! Then have all managers and senior executives go to a lecture on Bernoulli’s Principle, and how ice can really ruin a plane’s day. Maybe one of the fine engineers where I used to work at the world-renowned, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center can help you out. Thanks for reading Gentleman Agitator.

Post Script: The CNBC cable network aired last December and into January a fairly good documentary about the inner workings of American Airlines. One of the areas they looked at was American’s operations center in Dallas one night with storms affecting planes and people. It is a good example of how an airline properly handles an event like that. From what I have read and heard about their TOC at DFW, I have been really impressed. I do not know if CNBC will show this again. However, you can see clips at:
Inside American Airlines, a Week in the Life. Sadly, the storm clip is edited to show only a bit of the TOC and more of a complaining passenger.

Don't Leave Us With the AirTran Commercial!

    
The Stinky Sandwich this time goes to AirTran Airways and their commercial with the grandparents visiting their infant grandchildren. Tacky is what I would call it. The scenario of the thirty-second spot involves a set of grandparents coming to visit their twin grandchildren. They show up in a taxi at their daughter’s house. The parents of the children have conned the frail older couple by secretly buying AirTran tickets for a "getaway" trip. Then when grand ma and grandpa show up they high tail it out of the house and shove the babies in the grandparent’s arms on the way. The taxi with the parents squeals away as the grandfather shuffles after the taxi desperately yelling, "Don't leave us with the babies!" Nice.

I found a web forum dedicated to parents of twins, most of whom thought the spot was mildly amusing. None of them commented on the deception of the parents though. Now, I can believe that twins are a handful. Double trouble as the old saying goes. I can believe any parent of twins or otherwise like a little personal time now and then. This commercial however leads you to believe it is ok to lie to your own elderly parents. It leads you to believe that it is ok to leave your children's safety in the hands of two people who might just not be able to take care of them as well as when they were younger. It is also disrespectful of senior citizens showing a usual stereotype of doddering, clueless types.

AirTran can dish out tasteless stereotypes, but they cannot take evidently. They complained in 2005 about another ad that satirizes low cost carriers as AirTran is and has been since their origination as Valujet. That was a Budweiser radio spot in 2005 part of the successful "Real Men of Genius," campaign.

Entitled, "Mr. Discount Airline Pilot Guy," the ad implies that pilots for low cost carriers are bottom of the barrel types, or as the ad states, "Your minimal experience flying a plane will never land you at a reputable airline. Luckily, you don't work for one," and "You put the fly in fly-by-night operation." AirTran CEO, Joe Leonard told the Wall Street Journal in October of 2005, "You may deem the commercial to be satirical, but I find it highly offensive."

Budweiser apologized for the ad stating, "This campaign was meant to poke fun at slices of everyday life, but this execution clearly crossed the line and is in poor taste," read the statement. "We extend our apologies to pilots and everyone in the airline industry."

Mr. Leonard you may deem your commercial with the grandparents highly satirical, but if I were a senior and or a grandparent, I would find it highly offensive also. I wonder if we will hear them, apologizing like Budweiser did. If they do, I will de-stinky them, until then, they get a moldy one.

Thanks for reading Gentleman Agitator.

DELTAFLOT: BLUEPRINT FOR A FRANKENAIRLINE: Part 2, Tear Up the Blueprint!

CONGRATULATIONS DELTA FAMILY!

It is with great relief that I read this in the Cincinnati Enquirer on-line today, January 31:

"Delta Air Lines Inc.’s official creditors committee said this morning it will support Delta’s standalone reorganization plan, prompting US Airways to withdraw its hostile bid to buy Delta.
Delta’s committee said in a statement its decision was reached after a lengthy review of both Delta’s proposal and US Airways’ proposal, which the committee said it rejected."

US Airways had fought for many months to conduct a hostile take over of Delta. The plan was for the two to merge into a new company which would have taken the Delta moniker.

My congratulations to the entire Delta Air Lines family! 

Management and labor should be given praise for working together. To see Americans working together in the workplace in such a positive way is refreshing in this day and age. I believe when people work together in a positive way towards a common goal, anything is possible. I give the greatest  praise  though to the employees. Their "Keep Delta, My Delta," grassroots PR campaign I think helped turn the tide against the merger. It showed that they understand tradition and heritage are still important in understanding the power of loyalty, both employee and customer, in business. Keep 'em Flying Delta Family! Now, get ready to get out of being a bankruptcy hangar queen and get back to the black! We who fly with you and support you will continue to be right with you...

To the US Airways family, I hope that you are able to finish integrating into the "new" US Airways into a great airline. This industry needs healthy companies. And although I am not a US flyer, I wish employees and flyers the best.

I have felt through all this, and continue to feel, that ultimately, competition is good. It is good for everyone involved. It is what the American economic model is all about. If mergers do become necessary, they need to make the sum greater than its parts. That really did not seem the case with US and DL.

Last year, when the US Airways bid was announced I wrote about the risks of creating a large, operationally unwieldy, and debt ridden airline. This is exactly what this proposed merger would have created. It was what I called Deltaflot, a Frankenairline. US Airways chief Doug Parker put on a very confident stance that the "new" Delta could be melded from three carriers. He took the stand that consolidation in the industry is essential and this was the best bet for Delta's creditors to get a good deal and for his airline to emerge as one of the world's largest. Delta's creditors in the end did not see it that way, nor did Delta's employees and many flyers like me.

There are a lot of bitter feelings on both sides. I am disappointed when I see Delta people write or say stuff like, "Paybacks are _ _ _ _." C'mon Delta family, you are better than that. Delta stands for class. Let's show that class. There are those who say snide remarks like wishing Delta would liquidate or other horrible sentiments. To both types I say, time for the Karma police to start handing out violations.

The airline industry is an incredible thing. I have been fascinated with it since childhood. Those who work in it and those like me who just follow it, know that it is more than just pushing tin around in the sky. It is about providing service to people moving about the world in the best way possible. And it is about the people who make that happen. There are those in the general public who think you are invisible. There are those who know you are human beings trying to make a living and or live out the passion of flying. My best wishes to you all.

Fly Delta Jets

I have a new section of Gentleman Agitator dedicated to the men and women of Delta Air Lines called, "Fly Delta Jets."

Delta has meant a lot to me since I was eleven years old. I had a family crisis in 1974 and my brother and I had to stay an aunt in Atlanta to be sheltered for awhile. On a stop over in Memphis a kind Delta employee asked if we would like to see behind the scenes. I think she could see we were two stressed out boys. Already being an airplane and airline nut, I was thrilled to see what lay beyond the Delta counter. Delta took a place in my heart.

Then in 2003 on a trip to New York City I lost my wallet. After a hectic 24 hours, I went to JFK with my new temporary paperwork, not knowing if it would be enough to get me on the plane home. Another Delta employee showed me kindness and sympathy at my predicament. She even gave me a pin that had been given to her one bad day. She thought she would pass it on to me since I was having a bad time. More stars for Delta for me.

These two incidents really typify Delta's motto of a few years ago. "Good Goes Around." Indeed it does.

DELTAFLOT: BLUEPRINT FOR A FRANKENAIRLINE: Part 1

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Earlier this week, US Airways CEO, Doug Parker, sent a shockwave through the airline community by launching a takeover bid for Delta Air Lines. This however, I believe to be a mistake for all parties involved: US Airways, Delta, the industry and the flying public. I have been a passionate observer of the airline industry since my first flight on a TWA 727 as a child. So, here in Gentleman Agitator, you will get my opinion on the industry from time to time. I am against this merger.

You might know that in the late 1970’s the airline industry in America was de-regulated. The United States government loosened control over where airlines could fly and charge for a fare. This meant a hope for new business opportunities for the industry and making air travel more affordable. My favorite airline as a child, North Central, saw the opportunity to expand beyond its Midwest roots. With dreams of becoming a nationwide carrier, North Central merged with Southern to form Republic Airlines. This was quickly followed by absorbing Hughes Air West. They got too big, too fast and could not work three airlines effectively as one unit both logistically and financially. Eventually, its last CEO, Stephen Wolf, sold out Republic to Northwest Airlines. The industry has seen these mergers come and go over the last thirty years. The latest being the proposed US Airways/Delta Air Lines merger.

What is the US Airways proposition really in obtaining Delta? Basically, US Airways is trying to do a hostile takeover of Delta. Delta is on course to emerge out of bankruptcy next year. Since it’s creditors still financially have control of the airline, US is making an offer to the creditors to make more money in a merger deal than Delta alone could make them back once on its own again. Delta’s management would have no say in the decision on taking the offer. US is still digesting the recent merger with America West Airlines. That deal consisted of AWA infusing itself financially and management wise into US, to make one company calling itself US Airways. Ironically, if the US/Delta proposition were to go through, US wishes the new entity to have the Delta name.

The bottom line is that US Airways is eliminating some of its competition and stealing its name, because it has greater brand recognition. Although going through rough times in recent, Delta historically has been known for displaying great customer service through the “Southern hospitality,” of its Southern heritage in America.

Their double delta, triangular shaped logo has always had great brand recognition since it’s introduction in the 1960’s. US Airways has had a harder time matching customer service and marketing. I personally feel the present logo, a flat, dull representation of an American flag to be just that, flat and dull. In my next dispatch on this topic, I will tell you why I would name the new airline, Deltaflot, the Frankenairline! I will also discuss what further consolidation of the industry would mean in a country that used to pride itself on entrepreneurial competition, rather than economic Darwinism.

For some good articles on the situation go here: http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061117/NEWS01/611170367/1010/RSS01 and for how the Cincinnati employees are feeling read:http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061117/NEWS01/611170375/1010/RSS01